Monday, March 06, 2006

Beat the Brackets! Um, Again!

Yep, time to run this again. Hey, you never know - it COULD help you! I'll only take 10%! Also, the 2005 PAFC Awards are coming soon! Click HERE for last year's results.

OK, now onto the College Basketball thing...

I’m going to tell you right up front – I have watched little or no college basketball this year. So, why should you listen to anything I say? Because it’s a numbers game! The more you (think you) know about the teams, the easier it is to let your heart get involved, but the numbers never lie.

How to survive the first round: be careful when you try to pick upsets! About 40% of the time a number 12 seed upsets a number 5, but pick (at least) one carefully! Look at which 12’s are hot (had to win their conference tourney to get there) and which 5’s are overrated. Also, a number 1 seed has NEVER lost in the first round! In fact, the top 4 seeds are normally pretty safe; so only pick one to be upset if God gives you a sign when you’re on the toilet! The middle seeds come down to some blind luck. Again, look at who’s streaking.

Don’t die with number 1 seeds! If you think picking all favorites right through to the Final Four will work, you might as well save your money and buy a PAFC T-shirt. Again with the averages – only about 45% of the number 1’s make it to the Final Four. If you’re picking more than two, you’re losing. You’ll need to ride some 2-5’s into the Final Four. And don’t fault the top seeds for losing a conference game just before the tourney – conference games are always a challenge and this will make them more focused and mad at missing out on a perfect season.

The glass slipper can only hold so much weight before it shatters! Typically there is a number 7-10 seed that makes a little Cinderella run, but as the pressure mounts they begin to realize where they are. You can probably ride one to the Sweet 16, but picking a Cinderella to move on to the Elite 8 is damn risky!

Use your resources before you pick! Hey, I’m no genius! I used the Sporting News’ guide to bracketology last year and that’s where many of these stats come from. Use it! Use whatever you can get your hands on! Play the percentages and realize that sometimes the great teams leave early. Also remember that TV analysts and "experts" don’t know a thing – they are simply trying to shake things up and get ratings. If you compare their picks for other sports (football pick ‘em) vs. yours, you’ll probably have a better record!

Good luck and feel free to spend your winnings on PAFC merchandise!

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